In the studied EU countries of Poland, Hungary and Romania, the majority of respondents said they were not prepared for an increase in energy prices. In contrast, in Serbia, there was no polling data available at the time of publication. Unsurprisingly, in all three countries, the energy crisis is exploited by far right and radical elements to criticise the EU and its energy policy.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has opened a brand-new front for disinformation and influence operations. A major influx of refugees in neighbouring countries is creating avenues for exploitation of local nationalism, xenophobia and anti-Western narratives, already on the rise. GlobalFocus Center (Romania) has partnered with Political Capital (Hungary) European Western Balkans (Serbia) and Reporters’ Foundation (Poland), in a joint effort to check out how Ukraine-related disinformation is reflected and used within the far-right, ultra-nationalist and extremist communities to advance goals consistent with Russian interests.
Policy Recommendations
- Do not trade long-term sustainability (accountability, due democratic process, stakeholder negotiation) for short-term efficiency. Yet, short-term results and investment in drivers of change are necessary to build up the credibility of the process. Striking the golden mean is painstaking, but rewarding.
- Hold out credible reward for performance (EU accession) and build a rule of law constituency (invest in independent media, civil society organisations, public communication). Empower them to carry the flag and be domestic agents of change. Beware of window-dressing reformers using the accession process for their own ends.
- Treat rule of law, anti-corruption and good governance as cross-cutting issues to be incorporated and monitored in every chapter of negotiation and partnership with the EU; ensure stakeholder participation up and down the decision-making process; maintain focus on values, not just ticking boxes.
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Romania scores higher than other regional countries in terms of resilience to foreign interference, mainly thanks to its firm pro-Western orientation. The country’s primary vulnerabilities remain internal: elite capture by groups of interests that influence the political and social agenda, media ownership by corrupt businessmen and politicians, a drift toward social conservatism, etc. align with the interests of Moscow and Beijing to weaken the Euro-Atlantic alliance and create potential opportunities for malign influence.
GlobalFocus Center and its regional partner Globsec have published the Vulnerability Index, an analysis of eight countries in Central-Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans (Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia), with scores ranging from 0 (most resilient), to 100 (least resilient). Romania scores 29, equal to Czechia, whereas Serbia scores highest (55), closely followed by Hungary and Montenegro (44).